BELLWETHER:

1. a wether or other male sheep that leads the flock,usually bearing a bell


2. a person or thing that assumes the leadership or forefront....


3. a person or thing that shows the existence or direction of a trend; index
4. a person who leads a mob, mutiny, conspiracy, or the like; ringleader (Dictionary.com)
   

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Who would have known? I didn't even have the right spelling!

Like many people, I suspect, I went after this word, spelling it bellweather. I had a suspicion that I knew what it meant, having read the word in lots and lots of published articles lately. But I was shocked when I pulled up my new friend, Dictionary.com, and discovered a new spelling and a definition I never could have anticipated. It opens all new avenues of thought for me. I intentionally included all four definitions because they are so interesting.

I have usually heard the term bellwether in use in political stories. Barack Obama was seen as a bellwether in the later hours of the 2008 elections, for instance. But of late, the term has been used as an adjective, to describe a situation emerging. Over the past few weeks we have heard that the elections of governors in New Jersey and Virginia were going to have bellwether implications nationally. The election of a new Member of Congress in the 23rd election district of New York State was going to be a bellwether election, having meanings that depended upon the political affiliation of the person being quoted.

I have to wonder now (tongue in cheek) which of the four meanings listed above was the reference point for the persons writing. Sheep, mobster....

But the interesting thing to me is that the term is used usually in reference to a person, and only incidentally to a thing. In the articles mentioned above, for instance, I am inclined to think that the commentators are referring to the political result rather than the individual. I'm not sure anyone is saying that the new Governors of New Jersey and Virginia or the new Member from the 23rd NY district are in the limelight for future roles . They could be, but I don't think that's what was being said.

Rather, I suspect that the fact that a Republican replaced a Democratic governor in both states is seen as a remarkable index of things to come for the Republican Party as it struggles to regain some credibility after the 2008 elections. And the fact that this is the second time that a Democrat has won elections in previously conservative, Republican Upstate New York is seen as a trend in that state. Time will tell as to whether these prognostications are accurate. Frequently we discover that it is too early to tell anything.

This is a good example of where one can go when discovering the real meaning of a word. I never thought bellwether would lead me off in this direction.

This was fun!